Trends in marriage and fertility pose long-term risks to the financial and fiscal
health of the world's wealthiest nations – from China and Japan to Germany and the United States –
and are implicated in the recent global economic slowdown, according to a new report released
today.
The Sustainable Demographic Dividend: What Do Marriage & Fertility Have To Do With the
Economy? was released by the Social Trends Institute. Among the co-sponsors is the National
Marriage Project at the University of Virginia.
The study contends that the long-term fortunes of the modern economy rise and fall with the family.
For instance, the report finds that men who get married and stay married work harder and earn more
money than their unmarried peers. In much of the developed world, including much of East Asia
and Europe, social welfare programs are straining to support surging dependent elderly populations,
while productive working-age populations stagnate or shrink because fertility rates have fallen well
below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman – the level needed to sustain the population
over time.
"This report suggests that demographic trends in marriage and fertility play an underappreciated and
important role in fostering long-term economic growth, the viability of the welfare state, the size
and quality of the workforce, and the health of large sectors of the modern economy," said Bradford
Wilcox, an associate professor of sociology at U.Va. and director of the National Marriage Project.

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